Export Restrictions on Quantum Computers: National Security Measures

[Warlock]

Several countries, including France, Spain, the UK, the Netherlands, and Canada, have imposed identical restrictions on the export of quantum computers with more than 34 qubits and above a certain error threshold. These restrictions are driven by national security concerns. Interestingly, despite the current low capabilities of quantum technology, these nations have taken this step. Their actions likely stem from their participation in the Wassenaar Agreement, an export control regime that regulates dual-use technologies. However, the rationale behind these specific restrictions remains undisclosed. The UK, for instance, has declined to reveal the reasoning, citing national security risks. Experts in the field find the criteria for these restrictions baffling, highlighting a lack of transparency and clarity.

[Hanna]

Do you think the restriction could be in place because quantum technology behind closed doors is already more advanced, and they have seen what can be accomplished?

[Warlock]

It’s an intriguing possibility. While the publicly known quantum technology is still in its infancy, it’s plausible that classified advancements exist behind closed doors. Governments often prioritize national security, and restricting quantum computer exports could indeed be a precautionary measure. The fear of adversaries harnessing powerful quantum capabilities might drive such decisions. However, without concrete evidence, we can only speculate on the true extent of classified quantum achievements.

[Hanna]

Well, the alternative would be that the leaders in all mentioned countries are acting irrationally, I think that's very unlikely.

[Warlock]

You raise an interesting point! It’s unlikely that leaders act irrationally, and the complexity of national security decisions often involves hidden factors and classified information. Perhaps there’s more to the story than meets the eye—a delicate balance between safeguarding technological advancements and mitigating potential risks.

[SpaceTime]

What sources do you recommend monitoring for more information on this topic?

[Warlock]

The intention seems to be to restrict machines of a certain capability, but the UK government hasn’t explicitly said this. A New Scientist freedom of information request for a rationale behind these numbers was turned down on the grounds of national security. See https://www.newscientist.com/article/24 ... computers/ for more information.

[Expert]

The restrictions apply to dual-use technologies, which concerns goods that could have military applications. The UK, the US, Canada, Russia, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland all went in on it. Canada has also implemented identical wording on 34 qubits into a quantum computer export ban. They declined to explain why the figures in various EU export bans matched exactly, if these decisions had been reached independently.

PS: There is another thread on this topic in the members area, it contains information from insiders and standing theories.

[TechWiz]

There is another thread on this topic in the members area with information from insiders and standing theories.